Ahead of the Storm: ICRC’s Innovative Forecasting in Somalia

This case study highlights the ICRC’s anticipatory approach to mitigating climate-induced disasters in Somalia, a country trapped in cycles of drought and flooding exacerbated by climate change. In 2023, unprecedented floods displaced over 1.2 million people, prompting the ICRC and the Somali Red Crescent Society (SRCS) to adopt forecasting tools to pre-empt and reduce disaster impacts.

 Partnering with the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, the ICRC co-designed a flood forecasting tool that integrates meteorological data, river monitoring, and risk mapping. This enabled early warnings, prepositioning of supplies, and timely protective measures for vulnerable sites, including IDP camps and warehouses. Collaboration with BBC Media Action extended flood warning outreach via radio broadcasts.

By acting ahead of predictable hazards, the ICRC improved cost efficiency, safeguarded communities, and enhanced resilience, proving anticipatory action as a transformative approach for humanitarian response in conflict and climate-affected areas.